2026 World Cup · prediction markets

The model's board, scored against the price.

A statistical model forecasts every World Cup market, pre-committed and timestamped against the live prediction markets, then graded the way desks do: Closing-Line Value (did the price drift toward the model?) and calibration, as games resolve. Model vs market; the gaps are the calls.

Title race

Model champion probability vs the market, top of the field.

● model ● market · the gap is the disagreement

Every forecast

Model vs market across all markets. Sort any column, filter by market, search a team. Edge = model − market. CLV = how far the price has since moved toward the model.

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Closing-Line Value. Share of forecasts the market has since drifted toward, a skill signal independent of who eventually wins.

Early sample. CLV is conclusive only over a few hundred forecasts, and these are correlated across markets, so treat it as a signal forming, not a verdict.

Calibration

Biggest calls

Where the model most disagrees with the market, +/− edge in points, model v market. CLV ▲ if the price has since moved toward us, ▼ if it's drifted away.