2026 World Cup · knockouts
The knockout bracket.
The model's read of the knockouts, most-likely team in each slot, conditioned on every result through the final. The bracket is complete: Spain lifted the trophy, and the model's pre-committed top four were the exact semi-finalists.
● model's pick to advance · faint % = how likely that team is to reach the slot (projected) · ✓ = result in · gold box = upset the model missed, with its ✗ pick and the % it gave
Projected group finishes
Each group's projected final order (1–4), ranked by the model's probability of reaching the knockouts, top two (above the dashed line) or one of the eight best third-placed teams, conditioned on every game played so far. Points so far in mono. green on track · amber on the bubble.
The best third-place race
The 48-team format advances the top two of every group plus the eight best third-placed teams. The twelve group-thirds are ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored, the eight above the dashed line reach the Round of 32; the bottom four go out. green = through · grey = eliminated.